Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 3.318740 3.590545 3.899679 4.283831 4.758530 5.341256 6.138616
2025-02-16 2.973047 3.320231 3.745441 4.325634 5.137497 6.316256 8.387504
2025-02-23 2.694151 3.056651 3.517845 4.180475 5.180317 6.811101 10.366590
2025-03-02 2.547668 2.930933 3.435539 4.196753 5.436536 7.744175 14.619319
2025-03-09 2.425409 2.819291 3.351505 4.185867 5.635102 8.692054 22.478440
2025-03-16 2.302575 2.693970 3.231635 4.096108 5.665811 9.308483 36.049855
2025-03-23 2.248239 2.655859 3.229866 4.189535 6.062939 11.247378 NaN
2025-03-30 2.143866 2.540199 3.102700 4.055094 5.960385 11.596393 NaN
2025-04-06 2.047275 2.430004 2.975685 3.906510 5.796213 11.626158 NaN
2025-04-13 1.973797 2.348775 2.886987 3.815211 5.741605 12.091996 NaN
2025-04-20 1.946921 2.332181 2.894896 3.894199 6.098414 15.046392 NaN
2025-04-27 1.942590 2.347300 2.952315 4.070790 6.769158 23.258553 NaN
2025-05-04 1.902453 2.309593 2.925994 4.091516 7.058550 32.984708 NaN
2025-05-11 1.868073 2.278795 2.908831 4.128924 7.426613 63.197045 NaN
2025-05-18 1.805965 2.203561 2.813863 3.997174 7.205468 64.298604 NaN
2025-05-25 1.774211 2.172805 2.790862 4.011967 7.491688 517.922496 NaN
2025-06-01 1.740542 2.137587 2.758053 4.002073 7.693796 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.697238 2.085999 2.694810 3.920397 7.599150 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.683730 2.079444 2.707563 4.005406 8.211559 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.638634 2.022472 2.630665 3.883016 7.899505 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.593262 1.964062 2.549588 3.747270 7.512721 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.557959 1.920488 2.492910 3.663610 7.342576 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 1.548813 1.917106 2.505382 3.736000 7.880110 NaN NaN